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Climate Change predictions - [not the] Worst Case Scenarios
No predictions forsaw the melting that actually happened.
Date: 10/24/2008 12:10:40 PM ( 16 y ) ... viewed 2155 times When predictions are made for any sort of pending problem, there would generally be three categories:
1] Worst Case
2] Most Likely
3] Least Possible
However, in the climate change predictions we have been getting since the 1990s from various official bodies, such as the IPCC, NONE have yet to predict what actually happened - every year reality has been WORSE than the official predictions allowed for.
Arctic sea ice melting and glaciers retreating are some of the most obvious effects of a warming climate ; they are easy to see and easy to measure. They do a lot to stabilise conditions on Earth for all the living creatures, including humans.
Where snow builds up over the winter, and then gradually gives it up over the summer, this cycle provides water for the areas downstream. In the Himilaya region, those snow-melting runnoffs provide the summer water for the one-third of the human race who lives throughout the basin of Asia, China, and India.
In our warming world, those spring runoffs occur more suddenly, causing flooding. Then, with the winter's snow gone earlier in the season, there is not as much water in the rivers by mid-to-late-summer. Some rivers are starting to dry up completely before the end of summer now. Low river levels causes the oxygen levels to drop, and pollutants to be concentrated, and the fish may die off.
Where the Arctic sea ice is concerned, the Polar Bears are now having to swim longer distances to get to the pack ice where they can hunt for seals. Some are starving before they can complete these longer swims.
Also, the Arctic sea ice reflects a lot of sunlight, which is especially important in the summer months when the Earth is tilted towards the Sun. With less ice in summers, global warming effect increase.
It is better to know about these kinds of conditions before they occur. Thats what predictions are for.
If they - the IPCC - are being carefull with their predictions so as not to scare people, it isn't going to help to hold back on "worst case scanarios" because nothing is scarier than the unknown.
If ocean levels are going to rise by 5 meters by 2025, we better start to prepare.
If spring runoffs are going to slow to a trickle, we will have to build dams, but we don't want to do that unnecessarily of course - an accurate prediction can save us a lot of trouble!!
So give us "the worst case", "the most likely", and "the least possible" in the range of predictions for climate change - we will be watching!!
Here is the website for the IPCC:
http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
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