Flu vax risks

It is unfortunate that you have apparently developed Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) which may or may not have been precipitated by the flu vaccination. Yes, a strong coorelation was identified with GBS post flu vaccination with one vaccinaton type in 1976 but the same correlation has not been been statistically supported since. GBS is extremely rare, there are only 3000-6000 of GBS cases/yr in the USA. Some cases develop following certain bacterial and viral infections but about 60% of the cases occur with no identifiable cause. The incidence of GBS closely following a vaccination is estimated to be 1-2 per MILLION vaccinations administered. It's always difficult to determine if the vaccination really caused the GBS or if it's aN unrelated random occurrence with 60% of GBS having no identifiable cause.

There are risks versus benefits considerations and decisions all the time in our lives every day. Do you drive a car? There's approximately one traffic death for every million miles driven in the USA, similar to the risk to GBS occurring post vaccination. Admittedly, the benefit of the flu vaccine is variable from year to year as the flu type(s) selected for the vaccine each year has always been predictive. It's an educated guess that involves complex historical epidemiological statistical analysis of flu type trends throughout the world.

There's also a complex grid of factors that influence the actual effectiveness of each year's flu vaccine:

- NO flu vaccine has ever been represented as being 100% preventive
- Flu viruses notoriously mutate and that makes producing a totally effective vaccine problematic every year.
- Even in a year where the prevailing flu type was correctly predicted, a given flu virus can vary considerably in virulence and geographic distribution every year. This can lead to skewed statistics where the unvaccinated do not get the flu and of course, the CDC is accused of "crying wolf".
- A flu virus genotype put into a vaccine may mutate in the wild before the vaccine goes into use thus reducing the vaccine's effectiveness. There can be a 6-12 month lag between development and use of a vaccine.
- An obscure flu virus may rapidly become more virulent and spread quickly - Witness some of the viruses harbored in birds and animals. The predictive flu vaccine cannot take this into account.
- Differences exist in an individual's immunological response to any vaccine. I recently reviewed a series of clinical studies done in 2009 where the vaccine specific flu antibody production was serologically measured post vaccination and it ranged from 55% to 100% depending on patient's age and vaccine type.

- As for the oft told story that large numbers of health care providers routinely shun vaccinations, it's purely anecdotal and does not reflect the big picture. Extensive infection control programs are mandated by state and federal & accreditation standards for hospitals and spot inspections of compliance are often unannounced. I'm affiliated with a non-profit multi-state and multi-hospital & clinic organization where pertussis and flu vaccinations are required for all providers with rare exclusions. Those who are not or cannot be vaccinated, for whatever reason, are required by our infection control department to wear masks when in the presence of patients! It's a significant patient safety measure.