The reasons why herpes decides to get active are very complex and it's not as simple as some sort of immune system health index. The Duke University research I mentioned adds another piece to the puzzle, but it's still very much a mystery.
Myself, I rarely have active outbreaks, but when I do, it doesn't seem related to having a cold, or a lot of stress, or having eaten some trigger food. Other people have better luck identifying their triggers. For example, one woman I know, always got outbreaks when the racing season started in the Spring because she'd be out in the sun a lot. She started taking valtrex suppressively when racing season was about to begin.