Latest Poll Results - Shrub Behind "Any" Dem

Fifty-three percent of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling his job as president, a new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds. (Charles Dharapak/AP Photo)
Poll: Bush Slipping
Iraq, Economic Problems Level the ’04 Playing Field

Analysis
By Dalia Sussman


Oct. 14— Persistent criticism on the economy and his Iraq policy alike are clouding President Bush's political standing, creating vulnerabilities that combine to lock the incumbent and an unnamed Democrat in a dead heat for the 2004 vote.

An ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds that nearly six in 10 Americans — a new high — call U.S. casualties in Iraq "unacceptable," more than double its level when Baghdad fell last April. Bush's approval rating for handling Terrorism more broadly, while still high, now matches his career low. And most continue to disapprove of his handling of the economy, a critical election-year benchmark.

There are newer troubles as well: More than eight in 10 continue to see the alleged White House leak of a CIA operative's identity as a "serious matter," and the number who think the administration is fully cooperating in the investigation has declined to 39 percent. About two-thirds still favor appointment of an outside special counsel to look into the matter.


Bush vs. Generic Democratic Candidate for '04
% Vote for Bush % Vote for Democrat
4/30/03 53 40
8/11/03 48 40
9/13/03 49 44
10/13/03 46 47

Net result: If the 2004 presidential election were today, 46 percent of Americans say they would vote to re-elect Bush, while 47 percent would favor the Democratic candidate — the president's weakest showing to date in this so-called generic horse race. (It's 44 percent to 49 percent among registered voters). Bush's lead in this test is down from +13 in April, +8 in August and +5 last month.

Strengths, Weaknesses

The generic matchup is not an ideal test; it's easy for some to imagine a superior opponent who may not in reality exist. And indeed Bush polls better against named, flesh-and-blood Democrats. But the generic test does reliably highlight an incumbent's strengths and vulnerabilities, and the issues that shape perceptions.

Views of the situation in Iraq, for example, are heavily tied to election preferences. Americans who say the war was worth fighting, call the level of casualties acceptable and think Bush has a clear plan in Iraq support him by more than 3 to 1. Those who think otherwise heavily favor the generic Democrat.

Views on Bush's handling of the economy also cut to vote: More than eight in 10 of those who approve of his economic work say they'd vote for Bush. More than eight in 10 of those who disapprove back the Democrat.

Bush loses independents by six points and moderates by 15 points in the generic matchup; in late April, by contrast, he led among independents (the quintessential swing voters) by 19 points, and among moderates by 14.

As in 2000, he faces gender, racial and income gaps. Men favor him by 50 percent to 44 percent; women prefer the Democrat by 50 percent to 42 percent. Whites and higher-income people support Bush by double-digit margins, nonwhites favor the Democratic candidate by a huge 51 points, and lower-income people by 12 points.

Democratic Nomination Still Up for Grabs

The Democratic nomination remains entirely up for grabs. Compared to an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll a month ago, Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman's support has been cut by more than half and new entrant retired Gen. Wesley Clark's has doubled. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean now takes top billing, though his numerical four-point advantage is well within sampling tolerances.

All told, 17 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd vote today for Dean, 13 percent for Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, 12 percent for Clark, 10 percent for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, 9 percent for Lieberman, 6 percent for former Illinois senator and ambassador Carol Moseley Braun, with the remaining three candidates under 5 percent. (The race is essentially the same among registered voters and unleaned Democrats.)

This does not constitute an outright Dean lead; at the 95 percent confidence level conventionally used in polling, it's within the margin of sampling error. Given the sample size, one can say with only 60 percent confidence that Dean's lead is a real one.


Most troubling for Lieberman (in addition to what's been a highly changeable level of support since last spring) could be his drop in support among liberals, given the makeup of those who actually turn out to vote in the primaries. (Majorities of Democratic primary voters were liberals in New Hampshire and on Super Tuesday alike in 2000, as were 49 percent in the Iowa caucuses). Last month one in four liberals favored Lieberman; today it's about one in 10. Twenty-one percent of liberals back Dean (about what it was last month), and 15 percent are now behind Clark (up from 8 percent last month).

Many women Democrats are still waiting to be won over. Twenty-seven percent of women are either undecided or say they don't plan on voting for any of the current candidates; that falls to 18 percent of men.

Bush’s Ratings

Bush's troubles, while significant, shouldn't be overstated. Fifty-three percent approve of the way he's handling his job as president; on one hand that's a career low, but on the other it's far above the lows hit by previous presidents (Bill Clinton, 43 percent; Bush's father, 33 percent; Ronald Reagan, 42 percent; Jimmy Carter, 28 percent.) Indeed, it's only slightly below Reagan and Clinton's career averages, 57 percent.

On the economy, 46 percent approve of Bush's performance, 51 percent disapprove. But his father's disapproval on the economy peaked far higher, at 75 percent.

Bush's best marks are for his work on the campaign against Terrorism — 67 percent approve, a broad majority by any gauge. But this, too, is down from 79 percent last spring, and matches his lowest since Sept. 11, 2001.

Was the Iraq War Worth Fighting?

Fifty-four percent say the Iraq war was worth fighting, down from 70 percent in April. And 50 percent approve of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq — virtually unchanged in the last month, after falling from 67 percent in June and 75 percent in April.

A majority, 54 percent, thinks the administration doesn't have a clear plan on what to do in Iraq. And divisions on the issue cut deep.

One such split is between the sexes. Men by a 16-point margin say the war was worth fighting; women are split. Men divide on whether the administration has a clear plan there; women think not by a 20-point margin.

The administration's Iraq policy faces particular criticism from seniors, who have been more skeptical about it all along. Fifty-six percent of senior citizens disapprove of the way Bush has handled the situation. About six in 10 say the war was not worth fighting and the administration has no clear plan there, and more than two-thirds call the level of casualties unacceptable. Indeed, Bush does the worst among this group compared to other age groups in the generic '04 matchup, trailing the Democrat among seniors by eight points.

Partisanship remains a huge factor in views of Bush and the war. His job approval rating is 85 percent among Republicans, compared with 51 percent among independents and just 26 percent among Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say the war wasn't worth fighting, while 79 percent of Republicans say it was.

Independents split 52 percent to 47 percent on whether the war was worthwhile. But most independents agree with most Democrats that the level of U.S. casualties in Iraq is unacceptable, and that the White House doesn't have a clear plan there. Republicans broadly disagree with both.

Leak Investigation

On another issue, the alleged leak of a CIA officer's name, one view has worsened somewhat for the administration: Thirty-nine percent think it's fully cooperating in the investigation, down from 47 percent Sept. 30.

The officer's identity was revealed after her husband, former ambassador Joseph Wilson, challenged the president's State of the Union assertion that Iraq had been trying to buy enriched uranium from Africa for its nuclear weapons program.

More than eight in 10 say the issue is a serious one, including 46 percent who call it "very" serious, and 67 percent say a special counsel, not the Justice Department, should handle the case. These both are essentially unchanged in the last two weeks.

Democrats and independents favor a special counsel by huge margins; Republicans are somewhat more apt to side with the White House and say the Justice Department should handle the matter. That marks a change from two weeks ago, when 52 percent of Republicans supported a special counsel.

Partisanship also comes into play when assessing the administration's cooperation. A majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents don't think it's fully cooperating; more than six in 10 Republicans maintain that it is.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 9-13 among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

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