Although I'm skeptical of peak oil as well, there is one problem: refining capacity. We haven't built a refinery in decades and they're running at near-capacity. Throw in a hurricane that knocks out a couple (many of the big ones are in Texas) and you've now got a shortage. It's not because there isn't enough oil, it's because there isn't enough gasoline. Until cars can run on crude, refining capacity will always be a bottleneck that can cause a shortage.