TPM Track Composite: McCain Picks Up Undecideds, But Obama Still Way Ahead
By Eric Kleefeld - October 27, 2008, 5:14PM
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. John McCain has picked up some of the undecided vote, but Barack Obama's support is steady and he remains well ahead nationally:
• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.0%, a lead of 7.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/tpm_track_composite_m...
Polls: Obama Running Strong In Key Red States
By Eric Kleefeld - October 27, 2008, 6:53PM
The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:
• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.
• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.
These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.
All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.
It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/polls_obama_running_s...