Jeffrey Sachs Edward Snowden is a hero Julian Assange enable us to see the truth about the war in Ukraine!



Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary. Following a muted first reaction to
Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)
at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and
other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition,
stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion
as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement,
particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic"
issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also
underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and
Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue
could potentially split the country in two, leading to
violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force
Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR
and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership
would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry,
Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations
generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability
and "provocative acts" in the separatist regions. End
summary.

MFA: NATO Enlargement "Potential Military Threat to Russia"
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2. (U) During his annual review of Russia's foreign policy
January 22-23 (ref B), Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that
Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO,
particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military
threat. While Russia might believe statements from the West
that NATO was not directed against Russia, when one looked at
recent military activities in NATO countries (establishment
of U.S. forward operating locations, etc. they had to be
evaluated not by stated intentions but by potential. Lavrov
stressed that maintaining Russia's "sphere of influence" in
the neighborhood was anachronistic, and acknowledged that the
U.S. and Europe had "legitimate interests" in the region.
But, he argued, while countries were free to make their own
decisions about their security and which political-military
structures to join, they needed to keep in mind the impact on
their neighbors.

3. (U) Lavrov emphasized that Russia was convinced that
enlargement was not based on security reasons, but was a
legacy of the Cold War. He disputed arguments that NATO was
an appropriate mechanism for helping to strengthen democratic
governments. He said that Russia understood that NATO was in
search of a new mission, but there was a growing tendency for
new members to do and say whatever they wanted simply because
they were under the NATO umbrella (e.g. attempts of some new
member countries to "rewrite history and glorify fascists").

4. (U) During a press briefing January 22 in response to a
question about Ukraine's request for a MAP, the MFA said "a
radical new expansion of NATO may bring about a serious
political-military shift that will inevitably affect the
security interests of Russia." The spokesman went on to
stress that Russia was bound with Ukraine by bilateral
obligations set forth in the 1997 Treaty on Friendship,
Cooperation and Partnership in which both parties undertook
to "refrain from participation in or support of any actions
capable of prejudicing the security of the other Side." The
spokesman noted that Ukraine's "likely integration into NATO
would seriously complicate the many-sided Russian-Ukrainian
relations," and that Russia would "have to take appropriate
measures." The spokesman added that "one has the impression
that the present Ukrainian leadership regards rapprochement
with NATO largely as an alternative to good-neighborly ties
with the Russian Federation."

Russian Opposition Neuralgic and Concrete
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5. (C) Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations n