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http://www.ajc.com/today/content/epaper/editions/today/news_3475e2765396f19b


Atlanta Journal Constitution


CDC chief treads lightly with flu news
Dave Hirschman - Staff
Thursday, October 20, 2005

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Julie
Gerberding, returned this week from a 10-day avian flu fact-finding trip to
Asia, saying said she fears a backlash for "crying wolf" if a feared flu
pandemic doesn't take place.

Gerberding, who accompanied Health and Human Services Secretary Michael
Leavitt and other public health officials on the trip, told a gathering from
the Atlanta business community on Wednesday about the precarious downside of
raising international alarms about the dangers of avian flu.

"We're focusing a lot of attention on avian influenza," she said. "But
[human-to-human transmission of the disease] hasn't happened --- and it may
not happen ."

But Gerberding said "we're overdue" for an outbreak because there have been
10 such pandemics in the last 300 years.

In 1918, a strain of flu similar to avian flu --- known then as Spanish
influenza --- killed 50 million people worldwide, including 675,000
Americans.

Any current preparations will not be wasted, she said. "The efforts we're
making now will be needed [to combat] a future pandemic."

The virus has sickened at least 117 people in Southeast Asia since 2003,
killing at least 60, and has caused the direct death or preventive
destruction of millions of chickens and ducks. But scientists say the virus
has not yet developed the ability to spread easily from person to person,
which they fear would trigger a pandemic that could kill millions of people.

Gerberding told the business gathering that if avian flu turns out to be a
repeat of the 1977 swine flu scare --- or if it becomes the medical
equivalent of the "millennium bug" that was widely expected to paralyze the
world's computer networks at the end of 1999 --- the world may ignore other
warnings and fail to prepare for future pandemics.

The swine flu controversy cost the job of Gerberding's predecessor at CDC,
Dr. David Sencer, after influenza vaccine developed for the virus --- and
urged upon the public by then-President Gerald Ford --- caused paralyzing
Guillain-Barre syndrome in more than 500 people, killing 32.

Gerberding's remarks came as new bird flu outbreaks were reported in
European, Russian and Chinese birds.

Preliminary tests on fowl from a region south of Moscow where hundreds of
birds suddenly died have detected a deadly strain of bird flu, Russia said
Wednesday, bolstering signs that the dreaded virus might be spreading across
Siberia to the Mediterranean.

The Chinese government reported the discovery of 2,600 birds felled by bird
flu in northern China's grasslands.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned of a marked
increase in chances that migratory birds would spread the virus to the
Middle East and vulnerable Africa as well. The European Union announced
plans for an exercise simulating a human flu pandemic to improve readiness
in case the bird virus mutates to form a strain transmissible among people.

On Tuesday, EU foreign ministers declared the spread of bird flu from Asia
to Europe a global threat.

If bird flu is confirmed in the bird deaths in the Tula region, 125 miles
south of Moscow, the discovery would mark the first time the lethal strain
has appeared in European Russia, west of the Ural Mountains.

Although anxiety is widespread over the arrival of bird flu in Europe ---
European Union health ministers will convene a special session today to
discuss the problem --- the next stops on bird migratory pathways are not in
Western Europe, but in the Middle East, North Africa and East Africa,
according to United Nations officials in Rome.

Countries and farmers in these parts of the world, particularly in East
Africa, are completely unprepared, lacking both the money and scientific
infrastructure to control virus outbreaks, the U.N. officials said.

''One of our major concerns is now the potential spread of avian influenza
through migratory birds to North and Eastern Africa,'' said Dr. Joseph
Domenech, the chief veterinary officer at the U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization, which monitors the spread of the disease in animals.

If the disease touches down there, it could well become widespread in the
environment and on farms before it is even detected, he said.

Also, because in poorer African nations people live in close proximity with
animals, such a situation would provide a dangerous crucible for the mixing
of the bird and human viruses, vastly increasing the risk of human-to-human
infectivity.

Gerberding said avian flu has the potential for "a high degree of mortality"
if it develops into a form that easily spreads among people.

CDC officials are helping their counterparts in other countries diagnose and
monitor diseases, she said, adding that international health organizations
are sharing information faster than ever.

"There are signs of great challenge" Gerberding said, "but also of great
hope."

The Associated Press and The New York Times contributed to this article.

BIRD FLU FEARS

Many people in the United States, and in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and
Britain, are expressing concerns about the spread of bird flu.
An Ipsos poll conducted before the disease spread to Europe found that those
in Spain and Italy were most concerned, with about half the people in those
countries saying they were worried. Only one-third in the United States say
they are worried.

Roughly four in 10 people in Britain and France and three in 10 in Germany
say they're worried. In the countries polled, government officials are
preparing to stockpile millions of doses of vaccines. Governments are taking
additional steps:

> France: 50 million masks to protect against bird flu are being delivered
to French hospitals, and by year's end 200 million masks should be
available.

> Italy: Dozens of extra veterinarians have been hired to help authorities
monitor the health of poultry and label poultry to indicate where the meat
comes from.

> Britain: The government has asked hunting and conservation groups to help
monitor the country's bird population.

> Spain: The government has imposed a ban on bird imports from affected
countries Romania and Turkey. And citizens most at risk would be protected
through a vaccination campaign against flu.

> Germany: Farmers are being asked to keep their poultry inside and away
from any possible contact with migrating birds.
The polling of about 1,000 adults in each of the countries was conducted
Sept 23-Oct. 1. Each survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus
3 percentage points.


- Associated Press



 

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