Date:   10/24/2004 6:32:11 PM ( 20 y ago)
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NEXT WEEK: TIME TO BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES?!

Posted By: Esclarmonde
Date: Sunday, 24 October 2004, 10:42 a.m.

Rachal Booth passed on this email she received regarding the precarious edge on which our economic system now sits. Is this coming week...'IT'? The writer of this email suggests it may indeed be time to Batten Down the Hatches...

Hi Rachal,
What we expected to happen last week did indeed occur as the Fed began including all British and Canadian Eurodollars (which is in essence using their reserves to increase our liquidity) in the M3. To put this in perspective remember that in just 2000 this amounted to $26,000 per US person, today it is $57,000!

Coupled with this extraordinary measure is the timing in that it is coinciding with the near capacity of the Strategic Reserve.

The ‘third’ part is, of course, the rapidly falling US $ in overseas markets that is putting unsustainable pressure on the US markets.

Put it all together and indeed the ‘signals’ are all there to batten down the hatches next week. (No wonder the big oil gave up on increasing US infrastructure 30 years ago!)
As always I’ve included the references for this information.

Sincerely,

M3 consists of M2 plus (1) balances in institutional money market mutual funds; (2) large-denomination time deposits (time deposits
in amounts of $100,000 or more); (3) repurchase agreement (RP) liabilities of depository institutions, in denominations of $100,000
or more, on U.S. government and federal agency securities; and (4) Eurodollars held by U.S. addressees at foreign branches of U.S. banks worldwide and at all banking offices in the United Kingdom and Canada.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

Eurodollars are deposits denominated in United States dollar at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Subsequently, such deposits are regulated much less than similar deposits within the United States, allowing for higher margins.

Historically, such deposits were held mostly by european banks and financial institutions, and thus became known as eurodollars. Such deposits are now available in many countries worldwide, but they continue to be referred to as eurodollars regardless of the location.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollars

As of about the year 2000, the M1 money supply was about 1.3 trillion dollars, the M2 was $5.4 trillion, and the M3 was $7.8 trillion. If you split all of the money equally per person in the United States, each person would end up with about 26,000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

Current population: 294,590,713
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

The United States experienced a steep decline in refining capacity between 1981 and the mid-1990s. Between 1981 and 1989, for instance, the number of U.S. refineries fell from 324 to 204, representing a loss of 3 MMBD in operable capacity, while refining capacity utilization increased from 69% to 86%. Much of the decline in U.S. refining capacity resulted from the 1981 deregulation (elimination of price controls and allocations), which effectively removed the major prop from underneath many marginally profitable, often smaller, refineries.

Refinery closures have occurred every year over the past two decades. Since 1988, the United States has lost over 1.6 MMBD of capacity, which is about 10% of today’s total refining capacity. Several factors are driving this situation: 1) refineries that have closed are smaller and have less favorable economics than other refineries in their market area; 2) even though refinery utilization has improved since the 1980’s, refinery margin improvements have been modest; and 3) in recent years, some smaller, less-economic refineries that faced additional investments for environmental reasons in order to stay in business found closing preferable because they predicted that they could not stay competitive in the long term.

While some refineries have closed, and no new refineries have been built in nearly 30 years, many existing refineries have expanded their capacities.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html

In mid-November 2001, President Bush directed the Department of Energy (DOE) to fill the SPR to its capacity of 700 million barrels in order to "maximize long-term protection against oil supply disruptions." Under the DOE plan, the SPR is to be filled with "royalty in kind" (RIK) oil. As of April 9, 2004, the SPR contained around 653 million barrels of oil -- the largest emergency oil stockpile in the world. The SPR has a maximum drawdown capability of 4.3 million bbl/d for 90 days, with oil beginning to arrive in the marketplace 15 days after a presidential decision to initiate a drawdown. The SPR drawdown rate declines to 3.2 million bbl/d from days 91-120, to 2.2 million bbl/d for days 121-150, and to 1.3 million bbl/d for days 151-180.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html

Proven Oil Reserves (1/1/04E): 22.7 billion barrels
Oil Production (2003E): 7.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d), of which 5.7 million bbl/d is crude oil (NOTE: Including "refinery gain," US oil production in 2003 is estimated at 8.8 million bbl/d)
Oil Consumption (2003E): 20.0 million bbl/d
Net Oil Imports (2003E): 11.2 million bbl/d (56.0% of total consumption)
Gross Oil Imports (2003E): 12.2 million bbl/d (of which, 9.6 million bbl/d was crude oil and 2.6 million bbl/d were petroleum products)
Crude Oil Imports from the Persian Gulf (2003E): 2.4 million bbl/d (around 25% of gross U.S. crude oil imports)
Top Sources of U.S. Crude Oil Imports (2003E): Saudi Arabia (1.72 million bbl/d); Mexico (1.59 million bbl/d); Canada (1.55 million bbl/d); Venezuela (1.19 million bbl/d)
Value of Gross Oil Imports (2003E): $132.5 billion (up from $102.7 billion in 2002)
Crude Oil Refining Capacity (1/1/04E): 16.7 million bbl/d (132 refineries)
Total Oil Stocks (4/2/04E): 1.57 billion barrels (including about 651 million barrels in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html


 

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