Date:   9/14/2010 4:43:08 PM ( 14 y ago)
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The All Natural Cause of Global Warming

by John Kehr

One of the strongest arguments for Global Warming is the warming trend that started in the 1970′s. Since then the average temperature of the Earth has increased by about 0.5°C. When the numerous graphs showing CO2 levels increasing are displayed along with the temperature rise, people make the easy comparison that one causes the other.

Anyone who studies the Earth’s climate would not be convinced by such a shallow argument because it is very clear from even the most basic study that the Earth’s climate is constantly undergoing change. It has been difficult to explain why the Earth started warming in the 1970′s and that lack of explanation has allowed the warmist crowd to convince many people that the CO2 emissions of mankind are the cause.

The challenge for science has been to find the natural cycle of the Earth that is the cause of the warming trend for the past 40 year. It took a while, but science has been up to the task.



Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: 1860-2010

This Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural cycle that has existed for at least the last 1,000 years, but has assuredly been around much longer than that.

Try comparing the AMO to the seasons of a year. There is a summer, fall, winter and spring. The AMO is currently in its summer season. The difference is that the summer tends to last for about 30 years, meaning there is about 15 more years of summer left for the AMO. When fall arrives most of the Atlantic Ocean will start cooling. In the past 150 years science has recorded only two full cycles of the AMO. Knowing its exact behavior will take a significant amount of time. We can however start to understand how the AMO impacts the world for each season of its cycle.

While I was analyzing the AMO temperature data I was intrigued that it also showed a 0.5 °C temperature increase since the 1970′s. So I decided to compare the Climate Research Unit (CRU) global temperature data and overlay that data on the same chart. When I did I got this result.



AMO and CRU Global Temperature Anomaly

The first thing that stood out was the rate of warming for both the AMO and the CRU global-average was essentially the same. The correlation is so close that I was simply stunned. When I focus only on the period from 1971-present the results are simply astounding.



40 Year Comparison of AMO and Global Temperature Anomaly

Here is a natural cycle of the Earth that has been going on for at least that past thousand years that perfectly correlates to all of the modern global warming.

So impressed by the correlation with the AMO that I went back and did the same comparison for the last time the AMO transitioned from cool to warm (or changed from winter to summer). That took place from about 1913-1945. The great droughts that created the Dustbowl during the Great Depression took place during this period.

Dustbowl Era: AMO and CRU Temperature Anomaly

Once again the very natural cycle of the AMO caused the average temperature of the Earth to increase over the exact same period of time that the AMO was increasing.

Two times in the past 100 years the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has transitioned from cool to warm. In both instances the average temperature of the Earth increased in near perfect lockstep with the changing temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean.

Since the northern Atlantic Ocean is one of the main areas that the AMO is active (meaning that area of the ocean is what warms up) it is hardly surprising that arctic ice in that region is impacted. If there were accurate measurements of the Arctic Sea Ice from the 1913-1945 period of time it would likely show a very similar transition to the one that is going on today. It is the changing arctic ice that is another of the main “proofs” of Global Warming. The AMO is also a natural explanation for what is happening in the Arctic.

If the AMO is responsible for all or most of the current warming period that has taken place since the 1970′s, then that is proof that the activities of mankind have had little to no impact on the Earth’s climate and CO2 has not been a factor. Even if it is not the only cause, it is impossible to separate the warming caused by the AMO and that of other factors. In effect it is impossible to state that any warming has been caused by the increase in CO2.

Since there is little scientific basis for CO2 causing warming (that is covered in the book) the strongest argument for Global Warming is gone. All due to a better understanding of the natural cycles of the Earth.

Source: http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/

FYI: John Kehr is a chemical engineer and the author of a new book by the same title.  He is also the son of my good friend Webster Kehr, better known to many of us as "The Cancer Tutor"

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