Avocado sales and farming information

Date:   6/19/2006 12:40:50 AM ( 18 y ago)

Harvest over this past weekend was 5.8 million pounds, up slightly from the week prior. Although demand is strong, shipments were off slightly from the week prior and will need to be monitored closely. As an industry, we need to be cautious not to over harvest if inventories start to rise. Prices on 40’s and larger continue to be stable, however on 48’s the market this week feels like it could be softer. The market on 60’s and smaller continues to be weak. If growers are harvesting a lot of 70’s (4.75 oz to 6.25 oz) a positive return is still possible, however if 84’s and smaller (4.75 oz & smaller) are being harvested a return for that size is becoming questionable after harvesting cost and assessments. Warmer weather is still in the forecast for this week and no break in the harvest is expected any time soon. Where possible, size picking (48’s and larger) is advisable. We would like growers to feel free to give us a call so we can help in putting together a harvest strategy that can work for you.
May 04, 2006 The mid-season crop estimate is out and as expected is up from the pre-season estimate. Hass is up 4% (526.3), Lamb Hass is up 8% from 12.2 to 13.2. The Total crop is up by 2% from 541.7 to 555.1. For California, we are at the half-way mark of the season. For the first 26 weeks of the season, we averaged 7.7 million pounds per week in shipments with the highest week at 17.4 million pounds. For the month of April, we averaged 14.4 million per week (72.2 for the month). At the current crop estimate, the projected shipment rate for the remainder of the season is 13.6 million pounds per week. Some of the crop is expected to be carried over into next year. The carry over will have some effect on the projected average of 13.6 million pounds per week but it’s too early to say what exactly the carry over will be (at this point in the season, we do feel it could be 25-to-30 million pounds). With the revised estimate and knowing harvesting crews will need to be scheduled in advance, feel free to give us a call so we can help in developing a harvest strategy that can work for you.
May 01, 2006 We have experienced a very positive Cinco De Mayo promotional push of product over the course of the last couple of weeks. Inventories on 48's and larger remain steady. However, the 60's and smaller market, even with the recent promotions remain challenged and could suffer even further as we enter the month of May. Typically after a promotional period (i.e., holiday, Super Bowl, etc.), the market stagnates as inventories on the retail level are filled and not a lot of activity follows. Growers might not have to wait too long if the market stagnates due to the upcoming strong promotional pull for Memorial Day. Cultural news: populations of thrips have been springing up recently and it may be wise to start consulting your PCA to ensure proper spraying/beneficials are being utilized to minimize future damage to next year's crop. In addition, temperatures are beginning to rise and we are experiencing some early season fruit drop due to the heat, the leaf transition, and the new setting crop as bloom continues to push.
April 17, 2006 It looks as if our late season wet weather pattern may be coming to an end. As the temperatures begin to increase, several factors will come in to play that will prompt more and more harvesting. Trees are under an extreme amount of pressure this time of year: sizing fruit, leaf transition, and new fruit set. And due to the heavy volume still on our trees, we are seeing more defoliated trees than normal. With less leaf coverage, we are seeing more fruit burn. And as the temperatures start increasing, we will see even more fruit burn which will prompt more aggressive harvesting over the coming months. In addition, pest populations will begin increasing and spray schedules will be set starting now and will last into May. Some picking may be heightened to try and squeeze picking in between the spray windows. Therefore, we can start expecting more and more harvest volumes in the next two months. With Cinco De Mayo promotions coupled with Memorial Day promotions, movement is expected to be positive. As we have seen in the past, the strength of this market rests in the amount of harvesting we do on a week to week basis. Labor crews could be the limiting factor from here on out regarding whether you will be able to harvest when you need to or to take advantage of a positive market. It is imperative to begin strategizing and planning now on when to harvest the remaining crop on your trees.
March 22, 2006 As we predicted in early March, building inventory has innundated the market and prices are beginning to weaken as a result. Inventory has built slowly and steadily throughout the last couple of weeks even though rain has interrupted harvesting here and there. Volume and imports are the main cause of weakening prices. Imports (Mexico) continue to filter in at an average of 6-7 million pounds per week. Couple that with roughly 12-13 million pounds harvest per week from California and you can see that we have a tremendous amount of supply and as a result, the market is beginning to buckle. Harvesting could decrease due to weakening prices and we may see stability on the horizon in two to three weeks. Now is the time to begin monitoring your pest populations closely as the weather begins to warm and our new fruit set begins to establish.

January 11, 2005 Rain has saturated our groves!! Unfortunately, rain market usually has a positive effect on prices due to the lack of harvesting. However, Chilean volumes contine to increase, gearing up for Super Bowl. Therefore, once this weather clears and growers are able to pick, expect to see prices come down.
January 07, 2005 Rain continues. Rain is the only factor holding the California market at the current prices. As soon as picking commences, expect prices to come off. The Chileans continue to ship heavy volumes, gearing up for the Super Bowl.
January 06, 2005 Sporadic rain has enabled prices to hold somewhat. More weather is expected Friday thru the weekend. As soon as there is a clear window to pick, many growers will be motivated to harvest which will more than likely bring prices down. Heavy Chilean volumes are expected to fill the Super Bowl demand which will also have a direct effect on grower returns.

May 17, 2006 Promotional/Marketing opportunities abound for California Hass Avocados, especially for 60’s and smaller. #2 fruit is also plentiful from California on 60’s and smaller. The size curve for Cal fruit has trended down the size scale. California avocados are currently 17.6 million pounds up from 15.5 million pounds last week. Mexico is currently 1.6 million pounds up from 1.3 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 19.2 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 16 million pounds. Talk to your West Pak sales representative to tailor a program for you to take advantage of the promotional opportunities while they exist.
April 17, 2006 California avocados are currently 11.2 million pounds up from 7.4 million pounds last week. Mexico is currently 2.4 million pounds down from 2.6 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 13.60 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 14.1 million pounds. It is raining today in California and Mexico will not be harvesting and packing until after Easter. Demand this week was very good.
April 14, 2006 California avocados are currently 11.2 million pounds up from 7.4 million pounds last week. Mexico is currently 2.4 million pounds down from 2.6 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 13.60 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 14.1 million pounds. It is raining today in California and Mexico will not be harvesting and packing until after Easter. Demand this week was very good.
April 06, 2006 California avocados are currently 8.7 million pounds down from 12.6 million pounds. Mexico is currently 2.6 million pounds down from 2.7 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 11.3 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 16 million pounds. Incoming California fruit has been hampered due to rain. Mexican supplies are slowing and expected to decrease more next week due to Easter.
March 14, 2006 California avocados are currently 9.8 million pounds down from 10.2 million pounds. Mexico is currently 3.8 million pounds down from 4.0 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 13.6 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 13.3 million pounds. Pack outs continue to be heavy to size 48 and larger from California. 60s and smaller continue to be tight. We are 20% through the California crop. Mexican prices are slightly up and volume down.

March 07, 2006 California avocados are currently 10.1 million pounds down from 11.1 million pounds. Mexico is currently 4.3 million pounds up from 4.2 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 14.4 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 14.5 million pounds. Recent pack outs have been very heavy to size 48 and larger from California and are plentiful. 60s and smaller have tightened up both due to the select picking and rain that has hit So Cal off and on over the past week and a half. Rain is expected to slow harvest over this coming weekend. If you are looking for small fruit please get you orders in early.
February 28, 2006 California avocados are currently 11.2 million pounds up from 10.5 million pounds. Mexico is currently 4.2 million pounds up from 3.7 million pounds last week. That brings the overall inventory to approximately 15.4 million pounds. Last weeks shipments were approximately 16.7 million pounds.
February 24, 2006 There is a weather pattern that could affect the market on California avocado inventories. The projection is that it may rain Monday evening to Tuesday morning. Supplies have been plentiful but this deviation from regular harvest could firm prices up, make some sizes tight, and other it may help get to a more manageable level. Stay tuned.
February 14, 2006 Chile – For the most part finished. There are a few boxes left in the industry getting cleaned up. Once that inventory is gone there will be no Chilean until August 2006. California – 48’s and larger #1’s are in tight supplies. All other sizes are readily available and not in a strong position on price. California could easily pick its way to a lower market if the growers are not conscientious about what they are harvesting (should be 48’s and Larger) and how much they are harvesting. Mexico – Market is very similar to California. 48’s and larger are strong and everything else is dull. If Mexico is not careful we could easily see a weaker 48 market.







 

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