November 3, 08
1:18 AM

I feel asleep listening to the Sunday Rachel Maddow Show
on MSNBC. Rachel was explaining how John McCain could
win the election with activity in Pennsylvania, etc.

I have been having nightwares since.

I got up to go to the bathroom twice.

I looked at the Huffington Post for something more my style.

I found this wonderful link to this site that really gives
some incredible stats, updated frequently:


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


Here is the article on Huffington I was reading that
led me to fivethirtyeight.com:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/fivethirtyeightcom-more-t_n_140201.html


A conversation at the Democratic National Convention with Personal Democracy Forum founder Andrew Rasiej convinced me that the Obama effort had the potential to be game-changing, even as operatives - dying for some hard attacks from Obama - rolled their eyes at the thought of ground game making the difference. A friend of mine, Rebecca Piazza, has been blogging about her own campaign work, attesting to a quality operation from the Obama team, but yielding very few comparative clues. One could easily imagine this story remaining elusive. Talk of the ground game would figure in the post-election analysis, mainly speculatively, but we'd end up not knowing much about the efforts that were made in the trenches by McCain and Obama to win this election.
As it turns out, if you're looking for this story, you could just go to the same place that thousands of political junkies are already going to get a little bit of scrutability from the endless march of competing polling data - FiveThirtyEight.com. See, while stats stud Nate Silver has been busy crunching numbers, his colleague Sean Quinn, along with photographer Brett Marty, have been in pursuit of the ground game, and they've been dropping by field offices for both candidates to take pictures and chronicle the activity. And if there's one thing that's been revealed, nearly consistently, in comparing the two operations, is that there seems to be no comparison:
The busiest McCain office we saw was in Arlington, at the national HQ, but tight security prevented us from getting any pictures. Ironically, that was our first full office, in our 11th battleground state.

By Jason Linkins

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